Tracking China’s Carbon Goals: How Far Has It Come in 2025?

Over the past five years, China has made considerable progress in reducing carbon emissions and energy consumption per unit of GDP and expanding its renewable energy network. As the country looks ahead to 2030 and its first key climate pledge, we assess the current progress made on China’s carbon targets and discuss the latest policy developments that will keep it on track to reach peak carbon emissions.

2025 marks the halfway point for China to achieve the first of its major climate pledges – reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030. Since Xi Jinping announced the country’s “dual carbon” pledges at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020, which will culminate in reaching net zero by 2060, China has made major strides in decoupling carbon emissions from GDP growth.

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At the same time, China’s steadily advancing economy has continued to increase the demand for energy, in turn driving the consumption of fossil fuels even as the country’s renewables infrastructure expands dramatically. In the next five years, China must further ramp up investments in the green transition if it is to wean the economy off these carbon-emitting energy sources. This will mandate the involvement of all stakeholders, and in particular heavily polluting industries and companies. 

As the country continues its transition to a carbon-free economy and sets its sights firmly on 2030, the government has released a series of policy documents and regulations aimed at accelerating emissions reductions, improving energy efficiency, and strengthening oversight of carbon-intensive sectors. 

In this article, we examine the progress China has made in achieving its climate and energy goals and explore the latest developments in the policy and regulatory landscape shaping the next phase of its low-carbon transition.

Progress on China’s carbon and energy targets 

China has intensified its carbon reduction and energy consumption targets over the five years, releasing a flurry of policy documents that set specific goals to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions.  

Among the broader policy documents that contain tangible emissions and energy targets are: 

• The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021): Set targets for the period from 2021 to 2025.
• The Action Plan for Reaching Peak Carbon Emissions by 2030 (2021) (“2030 Action Plan”): sets targets for 2025 and 2030.
• The 2024-2025 Action Plan For Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction (2024) (“2024-2025 Action Plan”): Set targets for 2024 and 2025. 

Overall, China has made notable progress in reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions per unit of GDP, two key indicators of a greener economy, in the last five years. In 2024, energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 3.8 percent year-on-year, outperforming the 2.5 percent reduction target set in the 2024–2025 Action Plan and marking a significant improvement from the modest 0.5 percent decrease recorded in 2023. Carbon emissions also declined by 3.4 percent in 2024, slightly missing the 3.9 percent target. 

China’s short-term carbon and energy targets have been to some extent derailed by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a severe energy crunch in 2021. These events led to a policy shift to focus more intensely on economic recovery, as well as a rise in fossil fuel production to shore up energy security. Due to this, the country is likely to miss one of its core targets for the 14th Five-Year Plan period. 

Specifically, the pace of progress on emissions and energy reduction suggests that China may fall short of its broader five-year goals to cut energy and carbon intensity by 13.5 percent and 18 percent, respectively, between 2020 and 2025. The 2025 Government Work Report sets a 3 percent reduction target in energy intensity for that year. However, according to analysis from Carbon Brief, this figure indicates China will not reach its five-year energy intensity reduction target.

Growth in renewables 

Despite setbacks in reducing overall carbon emissions and energy intensity, China has made significant progress in the development and deployment of renewable energy. Over the past decade, the rapid expansion of renewable infrastructure has enabled the country to meet several of its renewable energy targets many years ahead of schedule. 

According to data from the National Energy Administration (NEA), in 2024, newly installed electricity capacity of renewable energy reached 373 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 23 percent. This accounts for 86 percent of the total newly installed electricity capacity, already far above the target of “no less than 50 percent” set in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Additionally, the total renewable energy installed capacity reached 1.889 billion kilowatts at the end of 2024, accounting for about 56 percent of China’s total installed capacity. 

China has also already hit its target for installed total solar and wind power generation six years early. In 2024, the total installed capacity of wind and solar reached 1.41 billion kilowatts, exceeding the target of 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030.  

However, as China’s overall energy generation continues to grow as the economy expands, power generation from fossil fuels continues to increase, even as the proportion of renewables in the new energy mix expands. Between 2015 and 2024, annual thermal power generation, which includes the burning of coal, gas, oil, and waste products, grew from 4.3 trillion kWh to 6.4 trillion kWh, exhibiting a CAGR of just over 4 percent. Renewables still pale in comparison by absolute power generation, with hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar generating 1.43 trillion kWh, 450.9 billion kWh, 997 billion kWh, and 839 billion kWh in 2024, respectively.  

Nonetheless, with the exception of hydroelectric power, the growth rate of power generation from renewables has far outstripped thermal power. Between 2015 and 2024, the power generation of nuclear, wind, and solar power grew at a CAGR of 10.2 percent, 18.3 percent, and 35.7 percent, respectively. 

Moreover, in 2024, the country’s total renewable energy power generation grew 19 percent year-on-year to reach around 3.46 trillion kWh, accounting for about 35 percent of total power generation. Of this, total wind power and solar power generation reached 1.83 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 27 percent from 2023. This is equal to the total electricity consumption of the entire tertiary industry and far above the total electricity consumption of urban and rural residents in 2024 (around 1.5 trillion kWh).  

The massive expansion of renewables infrastructure sets the country on a sturdy foundation to accelerate decarbonization over the next five years, enabling greater integration of clean energy into the grid, reducing reliance on fossil fuels, and supporting China’s ambitious climate goals while driving innovation and investment in green technologies. 

New policies and regulations 

Shift from energy consumption to carbon emissions reduction

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In the last few years, China has begun shifting one of its core decarbonization strategies from focusing on the reduction of total energy consumption to the reduction of total carbon emissions. Under this change, China will move away from the “dual energy consumption control” mechanism, in which the country aims to control total energy consumption and energy intensity, to a “dual control of carbon emissions” mechanism, which focuses on controlling total carbon emissions and carbon emissions intensity. 

In August 2024, the State Council released the official plan for this transition, which will take place over the 15th Five-Year plan period (from 2026 to 2030). This will require establishing a variety of monitoring and assessment mechanisms, such as a carbon evaluation and assessment system, industry carbon control mechanisms, project carbon evaluation mechanisms, carbon emissions accounting systems, a product carbon footprint management system, and a product carbon labeling certification system, among others. 

Under the plan, China intends to complete the first phase of the switch to the carbon emissions control system by the end of 2025. By then, it will roll out industry-specific carbon accounting standards and product carbon footprint standards, and launch a regularly updated national database of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions factors. At the same time, the government will improve its capacity for measurement, statistics, and monitoring. 

Energy conservation and CO2 reduction plan 

The 2024-2025 Action Plan, released in May 2024, reinforces the country’s commitment to its dual carbon goals as it nears the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period. With 2030 drawing closer, the plan emphasizes urgency and targeted intervention, especially in high-emission industries like steel, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and building materials.

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The plan sets specific energy efficiency and emissions reduction goals for these sectors and outlines broader national targets, including the reductions in overall energy consumption and CO2 emissions mentioned above, as well as an increased share of non-fossil fuel energy. It focuses on reducing and replacing fossil fuels, particularly coal, by tightening controls on consumption and phasing out low-efficiency coal-fired equipment. At the same time, it promotes the cleaner use of natural gas and encourages the development of alternative fuels such as sustainable aviation and bio-liquid fuels. 

More ambitious targets are set for expanding non-fossil fuel power generation, aiming for it to account for around 39 percent of total electricity generation by 2025, up from 36.2 percent in 2022. This growth will come from onshore and offshore wind, solar, hydropower, nuclear, and biomass energy. 

The plan also prioritizes upgrading infrastructure and technology to improve the absorption and use of renewable energy. Measures include building large-scale transmission lines for clean energy, enhancing grid flexibility, and deploying innovations like microgrids, virtual power plants, and vehicle-to-grid systems to support a more resilient and low-carbon energy network. 

Carbon standards 

In May 2025, the MEE, along with a host of other government ministries, released the National Climate Change Standard System Construction Plan (the “Construction Plan”), which sets out the requirements and objectives for building a national climate standards system. 

The plan outlines a comprehensive framework for building a national climate change standards system aimed at strengthening China’s climate response efforts through improved standardization, institutionalization, and systematization. It is designed to provide solid technical support for climate management by focusing on three main areas: 

1. Foundational capabilities standards: Covering basic standards and guidelines (such as general terminology, symbols, and classification codes, technical guidelines for standards development, and the building and management of climate-related information systems and data disclosure practices), GHG accounting standards, verification, and monitoring.
2. Mitigation standards: Include requirements for climate action, market-based mechanisms, emission standards, coordinated management of greenhouse gases and pollutants, evaluation methods, and technical management guidelines.
3. Adaptation standards: Address climate observation and forecasting, impact and risk assessment, adaptation actions, relevant technologies, and evaluation of adaptation effectiveness. 

Altogether, the plan details 15 secondary and 45 tertiary categories of standards, specifying the role of each and prioritizing the development and revision of standards to support China’s ongoing climate strategy. 

Draft ecological and environmental code 

On April 30, 2025, the National People’s Congress released the draft version of the Ecological and Environmental Code for public comment until June 13, 2025. This mammoth piece of legislation – containing a total of 1188 articles – represents a major legislative and political effort to systematically consolidate China’s existing environmental laws into a comprehensive legal framework. The code is divided into five parts: General Principles, Pollution Prevention and Control, Ecological Protection, Green and Low-carbon Development, and Legal Liabilities and Supplementary Provisions. 

The fourth chapter of the section on green and low-carbon development focuses primarily on climate change, addressing both mitigation and adaptation. It sets out broad principles and frameworks, including policy direction, management systems, coordination mechanisms, local government responsibilities, climate monitoring, data sharing, ecosystem services, and technological support. 

Under this chapter, the section titled “Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality” is of particular significance, defining specific legal requirements to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, including:

• Implementing dual controls on total carbon emissions and carbon intensity per unit of GDP;
• Establishing rigorous carbon accounting and emissions statistics systems;
• Managing product carbon footprints to track lifecycle emissions;
• Developing and regulating carbon market trading mechanisms, including mandatory carbon trading and voluntary emission reduction schemes; and
• Enhancing ecosystem carbon sinks to offset emissions through natural carbon absorption.

Meanwhile, the section on adaptation measures to climate change outlines strategies and requirements to strengthen resilience against the impacts of climate change. It mandates the creation of both national and local adaptation action plans, with tailored approaches for key regions and sectors vulnerable to climate risks. The section calls for establishing monitoring, early warning, and risk assessment systems for climate hazards, and highlights disaster prevention and mitigation efforts, alongside evaluating climate-related health risks to protect public wellbeing. 

Looking ahead: What China’s carbon and energy targets mean for companies 

As China heads toward its 2030 carbon peak goal, the regulatory landscape for carbon emissions and energy reduction is set to become increasingly stringent. According to recent policy trends, standards and regulations concerning carbon accounting, emissions evaluation, and broader environmental compliance will expand, inevitably raising the compliance burden for companies. Enterprises must therefore adapt to evolving carbon emissions and environmental standards, developing stronger carbon accounting capabilities and aligning operations with new requirements.

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Understanding China’s New Carbon Accounting Plan: Green Compliance and Opportunities

With 2025 marking the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the government is actively preparing the policy framework and targets for the 15th Five-Year Plan, which will begin implementation in early 2026. This upcoming plan is expected to introduce more goals designed to ensure China remains on track to meet its 2030 climate commitments. Consequently, businesses will face mounting pressure to accelerate their green transformation efforts. 

Companies are strongly advised to proactively transition to green energy sources, improve carbon accounting systems, and invest in clean technologies to stay ahead of regulatory changes. At the same time, the expanding focus on renewables, energy efficiency, and emissions control opens significant opportunities for firms operating in renewable energy, clean china-briefing.com/…/what-is-chinas-green-and-low-carbon-plan-and-why-is-it-relevant-to-foreign-investorstech, environmental protection, energy storage, and related sectors. Early adaptation and innovation will be critical for businesses aiming to thrive in China’s rapidly evolving low-carbon economy.

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