How 2025 Tariffs Are Changing China’s Export Landscape

Facing rapid US tariffs hikes in 2025 China’s export saw front-loaded shipments in March, leading to a surge ahead of steadier April volumes. A mid-May rollback added further uncertainty, driving China to diversify markets, upgrade products, and reconfigure supply chains. As exporters pivot toward ASEAN, the EU, and beyond—and lean into high-tech goods and e-commerce—the trade war’s legacy continues to accelerate China’s strategic realignment.

As of mid-2025, tariffs remain a defining feature of global trade policy—particularly in relations between major economies such as the United States (US), China, and the European Union (EU). From Section 301 duties in the US to anti-dumping tariffs enforced by the EU, protectionist trade instruments continue to influence global supply chains, cost structures, and corporate strategy. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the US-China bilateral trade relationship, where tariff escalation and recalibration have once again intensified following political shifts in Washington.

The period between March and April 2025 marks a critical inflection point. Following the inauguration of a second Trump administration, the US sharply raised tariffs on virtually all imports from China, pushing average rates to historically unprecedented levels. China responded in kind, prompting a fresh trade standoff. However, mounting inflationary pressures and business lobbying led to a sudden reversal in May, with both sides agreeing to a partial tariff rollback. Comparing the tariff regime before and after this escalation-reversal cycle is essential to understanding the current trading environment and the risks it poses for companies operating between the world’s two largest economies. (For a comprehensive breakdown of the US-China tariffs and the current state of relations between the two countries, see our full article here.)

Against this backdrop, monthly trade data offer an important lens through which to assess the short-term impact of shifting trade policies. In particular, the contrast between China’s trade performance in March and April 2025, before and after key US and EU policy shifts, provides clues into how businesses are reacting to tariff announcements, whether through frontloading exports, redirecting supply chains, or adjusting trade modes such as processing trade and bonded logistics.

This article offers a focused analysis of China’s international trade figures for March and April 2025, discussing potential links between these trends and the geopolitical and regulatory events of the period, concluding with some thoughts on how foreign businesses might interpret this data amid continued trade frictions.

Background: Trade war tariffs and their 2025 recalibration

China’s export performance in 2025 cannot be properly assessed without factoring in the structural disruptions caused by years of escalating US tariffs. These trade barriers, initiated during the first Trump administration, were sustained under President Biden, and dramatically intensified again following Trump’s return to office in January 2025. As of mid-May 2025, the average US tariff on Chinese imports stands at 51.1 percent, covering nearly 100 percent of Chinese goods—a level that rivals or surpasses the most protectionist phases of the 2018–2020 trade war.

From “Phase One” to retaliation spirals

The first wave of tariffs emerged under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, through which the US Trade Representative (USTR) targeted China’s alleged unfair trade practices.

Between 2018 and early 2020, the Trump administration rolled out successive rounds of tariffs. By the time the Phase One Agreement was signed in January 2020, average US tariffs on Chinese imports had risen to 19.3 percent, with coverage reaching 66.6 percent of goods. In parallel, China responded with its own retaliatory tariffs, averaging 21 percent and covering 58.3 percent of US goods.

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The Biden administration maintained these measures but refrained from significantly expanding them. Notably, however, targeted tariff increases were introduced in September 2024 and January 2025, raising the average US tariff rate to 20.8 percent while keeping the coverage constant. This period was marked by regulatory continuity rather than normalization.

Trump 2.0: 2025 tariff escalations

Upon returning to office, the Trump administration rapidly deployed tariffs as a centerpiece of its trade strategy. A series of aggressive actions unfolded over just a few months:

• February 4 and March 4, 2025: The administration imposed a blanket 10 percentage point increase on all imports from China, raising average tariffs across-the-board.
• March 12, 2025: Tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports—under Section 232, citing national security grounds—were raised further. Though applied globally, these measures had substantial implications for China’s industrial exports.
• April 3 and May 3: Targeted duties were introduced on automotive imports, parts, and electric vehicles—intended in part to counter China’s perceived overcapacity and export-led subsidy model.
• April 5, 9, and 10: A rapid series of tariff hikes culminated in cumulative increases of up to 125 percentage points, depending on the product line. Though some sector-specific carveouts remained, the average US tariff rate on Chinese goods skyrocketed to 126.5 percent by early May.

China retaliated in kind, escalating through three rounds of counter-tariffs. By April 10, 2025, China had extended tariffs to cover 100 percent of US goods, with average duties hitting 147.6 percent—the highest level in the history of bilateral trade between the two countries.

De-escalation in Geneva: The May 14 reset

Amid domestic pressure from businesses and growing concern over inflation and global supply chain disruptions, high-level negotiators from both countries convened in Geneva in early May. On May 14, 2025, they reached a surprise agreement to scale back the April escalations.

Under the deal:

• Both sides converted the April tariff increases into a uniform 10 percent tariff on all bilateral trade.
• The average US tariff on Chinese imports dropped from 126.5 percent to 51.1 percent.
• Meanwhile, China’s average tariff on US goods fell from 147.6 percent to 32.6 percent.

The reduction was not perfectly symmetrical due to differences in product categories, baseline tariff rates, and sectoral exclusions. However, the move signaled a mutual desire to halt the downward spiral and avoid a broader trade rupture. It also demonstrated the growing domestic cost of prolonged tariff warfare in both countries.

China’s shifting export landscape: March vs. April

March snapshot

In March 2025, China’s exports reached US$314 billion, marking a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 12.4 percent. This sharp uptick was largely driven by front-loading behavior, as exporters accelerated shipments ahead of anticipated tariff increases from the United States, particularly in late March and early April.

The total export value amounted to RMB 2.39 trillion, with a monthly trade surplus of US$103 billion (exports: US$314 billion; imports: US$211 billion).

Export performance was strong across several key product categories:

• Mechanical and electronic products: +7.6% YoY
• Home appliances: +8.7%
• LCDs: +8.4%
• Fertilizer: +42.7%
• Agricultural products: +5.7%

On a geographical basis, exports increased to a wide range of major trading partners:

• United States: +4.5%
• Japan: +2.8%
• Hong Kong: +8.3%
• India: +13.8%
• United Kingdom: +6.2%
• European Union: +3.7%
• ASEAN countries: +8.1%

These figures reflect both the resilience of demand in traditional markets and the growing diversification of China’s export destinations. The March export surge highlights how policy anticipation, particularly regarding US trade measures, can shape short-term trade flows and magnify monthly growth rates.

April snapshot

In April 2025, China’s exports totaled US$314.1 billion (RMB 2.3 trillion), marking a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 8.1 percent in US dollar terms, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs. While this represented a slowdown from March’s 12.4 percent growth, it far outpaced analyst expectations of 1.9 percent, suggesting a resilient export sector despite mounting external pressures.

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China’s total foreign trade reached US$532.5 billion (RMB 3.6 trillion), up 5.6 percent YoY, while the country registered a trade surplus of US$95.7 billion (exports: US$314.1 billion; imports: US$218.4 billion). Import growth rebounded modestly in April, rising 0.8 percent in RMB terms and narrowing to a 0.27 percent contraction in US dollar terms, recovering from a sharper drop in March.

April’s export performance came against the backdrop of escalating US tariffs, which peaked at 145 percent on select product categories. These trade barriers triggered a steep 21 percent decline in exports to the United States, reversing the 9.1 percent growth seen in March due to pre-tariff shipment acceleration.

Export strength was concentrated in key product categories:

• Mechanical and electrical products: +9.5% YoY
• Integrated circuits: +14.7%
• Automatic data processing equipment and components: +5.6%
• Automobiles: +4.0%
• Agricultural products and fertilizers: performance varied, but agricultural exports were supported by ASEAN demand

Meanwhile, several regional markets saw accelerated growth, mitigating the impact of reduced US-bound shipments:

• European Union: +8.3%
• ASEAN countries: +20.8%
• India: +21.7%
• Hong Kong SAR: +8.8%
• Japan: +7.8%
• Canada: +15.0%
• Taiwan (China): +15.5%

In contrast, exports to Russia (-2.7 percent) and the United States (-21.0 percent) declined markedly, reflecting both geopolitical and tariff-related pressures. Still, the strong performance in ASEAN, EU, and South Asia underscores China’s shifting trade orientation toward alternative and emerging markets.

A comparative analysis: March vs. April

Overall export performance

March’s remarkable 12.4 percent year-on-year jump was largely attributable to pre-tariff “front-loading,” as Chinese exporters rushed to ship goods ahead of steep US levies slated for early April. By contrast, April’s 8.1 percent YoY rise—mirroring a near-identical US$314 billion in export value—reflects a return to more measured trade flows now that those tariffs have landed. In other words, the blistering early-quarter growth gave way to a steadier rhythm once the policy dust settled.

Beneath the headline, certain sectors powered this relative stabilization. Mechanical and electrical products not only sustained but accelerated their pace, climbing from +7.6 percent in March to +9.5 percent in April. High-tech exports—led by integrated circuits (+14.7 percent) and data-processing equipment (+5.6 percent)—continued to outpace the broader market, while intermediate goods such as fertilizers, despite moderating from +42.7 to +35.2 percent, remained buoyant. Even consumer durables—home appliances and LCD panels—held solid gains, underscoring persistent global appetite for Chinese-made electronics.

By major market

The most dramatic swing occurred in the US. In March, US-bound exports enjoyed a modest +4.5 percent YoY bump, but once punishing 145 percent tariffs took effect on April 9, those shipments plunged 21.0 percent year-on-year in April. This reversal epitomizes the front-loading phenomenon in reverse: a brief surge followed by steep retrenchment.

In stark contrast, exports to the EU gathered momentum, rising from +3.7 percent in March to +8.3 percent in April. Germany led the charge with a remarkable +20.4 percent gain, suggesting that EU firms may be reallocating orders to sidestep US tariffs or simply responding to robust demand for capital and green-tech equipment.

Southeast Asian markets saw the most pronounced acceleration. ASEAN destinations jumped from +8.1 percent in March to +20.8 percent in April, with Indonesia (+36.8 percent), Thailand (+27.9 percent), and Vietnam (+22.5 percent) all posting double-digit growth. These figures highlight how regional supply-chain realignments are taking hold, as companies seek lower-tariff avenues for manufacturing and distribution.

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Beyond ASEAN, China’s broader Belt & Road partners also stepped up. Exports to India surged from +13.8 to +21.7 percent, while Latin American (for example, Brazil, +17.3 percent) and African (for example, South Africa, +21.1 percent) markets continued to expand. In effect, China’s exporters are diversifying their geographic footprint to mitigate the US-driven downturn.

By product category

Breaking the data down by product type reveals a consistent theme: China is leaning into higher-value, technology-intensive exports even as traditional goods find new homes.

• High-tech goods: Growth in mechanical, electrical, and ICT products rose from +7.6 percent in March to +9.5 percent in April. Integrated circuits (+14.7 percent) and data-processing gear (+5.6 percent) remain standout performers, reinforcing China’s pivot toward advanced manufacturing.
• Intermediate  goods: Fertilizer exports, though moderating, still expanded by +35.2 percent in April, and broader agricultural shipments held mid-single-digit gains—evidence of steady global demand for inputs that underpin food-security efforts.
• Consumer  goods: Durable goods such as home appliances and LCD panels eased slightly—from +8.7 to +7.9 percent and +8.4 to +6.1 percent respectively—but their continued growth highlights resilient consumer markets outside the US.

In summary, the March–April comparison paints a clear narrative: an early-year surge driven by tariff anticipation has ceded to a more sustainable trajectory under the new policy regime. Meanwhile, Chinese exporters are recalibrating both their product mix and market focus—doubling down on high-tech sectors and leaning into faster-growing regions—to navigate an increasingly fragmented global trade environment.

China’s 2025 exports trends shaped by tariffs

The tariff turmoil of early 2025 has catalyzed several notable shifts in how China’s exporters approach global markets, product strategies, and supply-chain configurations. Below, we explore four key trends emerging from the data.

Diversification of markets

With US exports plunging 21 percent in April, Chinese firms have aggressively redirected their sales efforts to alternative markets. Exports to ASEAN surged 20.8 percent YoY in April, led by double-digit jumps in Indonesia (+36.8 percent), Thailand (+27.9 percent), and Vietnam (+22.5 percent). Similarly, shipments to Europe rose 8.3 percent, with Germany posting a remarkable +20.4 percent gain—underscoring EU buyers’ willingness to source around US-China trade frictions. Beyond these, early-year data show Belt & Road partners in Latin America (Brazil +17.3 percent) and Africa (South Africa +21.1 percent) also absorbing growing Chinese exports.

By contrast, exports to the US swung from +4.5 percent in March to -21.0 percent in April, a stark reminder of tariff sensitivity. This divergence illustrates a strategic rebalancing: as traditional Western markets face higher levies, dynamic economies in Asia, the Middle East, and beyond offer more stable, tariff-light avenues for growth.

Product upgrading and value-addition

Tariff pressures have propelled Chinese firms up the value chain. In April, high-tech goods—mechanical, electrical, and ICT products—grew 9.5 percent YoY, compared to 7.6 percent in March. Sub-segments like integrated circuits (+14.7 percent) and automatic data-processing equipment (+5.6 percent) outperformed basic manufacturing, reflecting targeted investment in advanced R&D and design capabilities.

Anecdotal industry reports suggest China’s export price index has edged upward as producers capture greater margin on differentiated, higher-value goods. While commodity exports (for example, fertilizer) still register robust volume growth, exporters of sophisticated components are able to command price premiums that cushion the impact of tariffs on unit profitability.

Supply-chain reconfiguration

To mitigate tariff risk and reduce transit times, many manufacturing operations are relocating within Asia. China’s processing trade—which includes assembly of foreign-supplied materials—grew 14.2 percent in April, while bonded logistics trade expanded 22.3 percent. These figures indicate firms are increasingly leveraging free-trade zones and regional production hubs (for example, Vietnam and Thailand) to serve both domestic and export markets more flexibly.

Special customs zones dedicated to e-commerce saw remarkable growth, as small and medium-sized exporters tap digital platforms to reach consumers directly. April’s data show logistic goods by customs special control areas up 22.3 percent, highlighting how streamlined clearance procedures and lower tariffs on parcels are enabling rapid, direct-to-buyer shipments, especially for consumer goods and niche products.

SME vs. large-enterprise responses

Chinese Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises  (SMEs) operating with tighter margins, have been quicker to reorient toward emerging markets and digital channels. They disproportionately benefit from the e-commerce surge—using bonded warehouses to outflank traditional shipping routes—and from sharply focused niche strategies (for example, specialized auto parts and consumer electronics accessories).

At the same time, state-backed initiatives—such as export credit guarantees, preferential Value Added Tax (VAT) refunds, and international trade fairs—have provided crucial liquidity and market intelligence to both SMEs and larger firms. The extension of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) tariff concessions and targeted subsidy schemes for “strategic emerging industries” (for instance, semiconductors and new-energy vehicles) have further enabled firms of all sizes to invest in product upgrading and market diversification.

Conclusion: Tariffs broader impacts on China’s export strategy

The rapid-fire tariff escalations of early 2025 unleashed a wave of uncertainty across China’s export sector. In response, firms scrambled to reprice goods, renegotiate contracts, and in many cases reroute or postpone shipments. The dramatic “spike” in April—coinciding with the country’s customary mid-year export push—triggered widespread disruption, as orders were paused or cancelled mid-cycle and logistical bottlenecks compounded importer hesitancy.

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Although overall April export figures slightly outperformed analysts’ expectations, the data remained subdued relative to historical seasonal highs. This was particularly evident in shipments to the United States, where the full brunt of the tariff hikes was felt. Notably, US-bound exports of industrial inputs, automotive parts, and electronics registered sharper declines. While the May 14 Geneva agreement to roll back the April tariffs offered some respite, it came too late to reverse the immediate drag on trade flows during that period.

Looking forward, this tariff whiplash is set to reinforce several deeper shifts in China’s trade playbook:

• Market diversification: Beyond its traditional reliance on the US and EU, China will continue redirecting exports toward ASEAN, the Middle East, and Latin America.
• Financial hedging: Greater use of RMB-denominated trade and bilateral currency agreements will help buffer against dollar-centric fluctuations and policy shocks.
• Supply-chain realignment: We can expect accelerated near-shoring and localized production through outbound investment—particularly in sectors most exposed to protectionist measures.

At the same time, global buyers may grow more cautious about sourcing high-risk products from China, and closer US–EU coordination on critical-technology tariffs could further reshape global value chains. In policy circles, this evolving landscape is often described as “de-risking”—a strategic recalibration that goes well beyond tariffs to encompass geopolitics, technology competition, and supply-chain resilience.

For Chinese exporters, the challenge will be to navigate this new normal by doubling down on innovation, expanding their geographic footprint, and forging the financial and logistical safeguards needed to thrive under persistent uncertainty.

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